(CBS) Baseball has always been a game about statistics, something the Boston Red Sox took to a new level when they hired baseball statistics guru Bill James in 2002. His "sabermetrics" analysis of players' stats is a system Red Sox owners believe is an integral part of a winning formula that has brought two World Series trophies to Boston since he arrived. However, more teams are getting into the act, say Sox owners, who now worry that their dreaded enemy the New York Yankees will get into the same game with their always-bigger wallet.
60 Minutes correspondent Morley Safer reports on James, his influence on the Red Sox, and a bitter rivalry heating up early, this Sunday, March 30, at 7 p.m. ET/PT.
"[James'] reputation had preceded him," says Larry Lucchino, a partner in the Red Sox. "So we knew we were getting a guy who was unusual and I thought it was a giant step forward," he says. His partner in the Sox, Tom Werner, believes James' brand of analysis is crucial now. "The truth is, Morley, this is a very sophisticated business these days….When Larry and I first came into the business, the general manager relied fairly much on gut instincts…we’ve taken a much more systematic approach, which really comes from Bill," he tells Safer.
But everybody's getting into this act, says Lucchino, especially the New York Yankees, known in Boston as the "Evil Empire." "[The Yankees] are [utilizing an intense scrutiny of statistics] but there are several teams in baseball that are doing it," Lucchino says. "But the Yankees always tend to spend a little more money at whatever it is they’re doing. So, we're concerned about our competition," he tells Safer.
The "sabermetrics" James brings to the Sox as a consultant is defined loosely as analyzing baseball through objective evidence.
He is credited with being among the first to look deeper into the numbers. Beyond a hitter's average is the amount of walks he draws, which not only hike his on-base percentage but also wears down pitchers. Pitchers are judged not just on wins versus losses but on the amount of home runs, walks and strikeouts.
There are a multitude of things to consider in a ballplayer that make him worth his salary and an asset to a team. Who would James most want to see on his dream team? "David Wright," he answers without thinking. "Because he does everything I like and he’s very young."
Wright, 25, the New York Mets superstar third baseman, has his most productive years ahead of him and the Mets have him wrapped up under contract until 2013.
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SERIES/SEASON LEADERS
Red Sox - 7 Runs Scored
Ramirez - 3.5 RAF, 6 RP
Moss - 1.5 RAF, 2 RP
Youkilis - .5 RAF, 1 RP
Pedroia - .5 RAF, 1 RP
Ortiz - .5 RAF, 1 RP
Lugo - .5 RAF, 1 RP
Athletics - 10 Runs Scored
Brown - 2.5 RAF, 4 RP
Crosby - 1.5 RAF, 3 RP
Hannahan - 1.5 RAF, 2 RP
Ellis - 1.5 RAF, 2 RP
Barton - 1 RAF, 2 RP
Denorfia - .5 RAF, 1 RP
Sweeney - .5 RAF, 1 RP
Fiorentino - .5 RAF, 1 RP
Suzuki - .5 RAF, 1 RP
--N8DOGG
Boston 1, Oakland 5
Red Sox
- M. Ramirez homered to deep left
RAF:
Ramirez - 1 RAF, 1 RP
Athletics
- C. Denorfia singled, B. Crosby scored
- E. Brown homered, M. Ellis and M. Sweeney scored (The infamous 3-run HR!!)
- J. Fiorentino singled, K. Suzuki scored
RAF:
Brown - 2 RAF, 3 RP
Denorfia - .5 RAF, 1 RP
Crosby - .5 RAF, 1 RP
Ellis - .5 RAF, 1 RP
Sweeney - .5 RAF, 1 RP
Fiorentino - .5 RAF, 1 RP
Suzuki - .5 RAF, 1 RP
--N8DOGG
So the baseball season kicked off this morning, so as practice, we decided to count the RAF for this game and the game tomorrow to make sure we know what we're doing.
Boston 6, Oakland 5
Red Sox
Top 6th:
-M. Ramirez doubled, K. Youkilis and D. Pedroia scored
-B. Moss singled, M. Ramirez scored
Ramirez earns 1 RAF for batting in 2 runs. Youkilis and Pedroia each earn .5 RAF for scoring, thus 2 total RAF between the 3. On Moss' single, he earns .5 for the RBI, and Ramirez earns .5 RAF more for scoring. 3 total RAF (as well as runs scored) in the 6th.
Top 9th:
- B. Moss homered
Nobody on base, therefore Moss receives the full RAF this inning.
Top 10th:
- M. Ramirez doubled, D. Ortiz and J. Lugo scored
Ramirez again gets 1 RAF. Ortiz and Lugo each pick up .5, 2 RAF in this inning.
So we have:
Ramirez - 2.5 RAF, 5 RP
Moss - 1.5 RAF, 2 RP
Youkilis - .5 RAF, 1 RP
Pedroia - .5 RAF, 1 RP
Ortiz - .5 RAF, 1 RP
Lugo - .5 RAF, 1 RP
Athletics
Bot 1st:
- M. Ellis homered
- B. Crosby grounded out, D. Barton scored
Ellis gets 1 RAF for the home run. Crosby and Barton each get .5 RAF.
Bot 6th:
- J. Hannahan homered, B. Crosby scored
Hannahan gets the full RAF for his run scoring, plus he gets half for batting in Crosby. Crosby receives another .5 RAF.
Bot 10th:
- E. Brown doubled to deep center, D. Barton scored
Brown and Barton each receive .5 RAF.
For the A's:
Hannahan - 1.5 RAF, 2 RP
Ellis - 1 RAF, 1 RP
Crosby - 1 RAF, 2 RP
Barton - 1 RAF, 2 RP
Brown - .5 RAF, 1 RP
This is obviously a lot of information to throw into a post for a stat that took about 2 minutes to calculate. But it is the first post so I wanted to explain how I got some stuff in case anyone was confused. I will post about the second game tomorrow and that one should look more like what the rest of the season posts will look like.
--N8DOGG
In order to understand Runs Accounted For, first you must understand Runs Produced. If you don't know about RP, the formula is RP=R+RBI-HR. From Wikipedia (yeah I know, but it's a great description):
Runs produced is a baseball statistic that can help estimate the number of runs a hitter contributes to his team. The formula adds together the player's runs and Run batted in, and then subtracts the player's home runs. Home runs are subtracted to compensate for the batter getting credit for both one run and at least one RBI when hitting a home run. Runs produced is a teammate-dependent stat in that it includes Runs and RBIs, which are affected by which batters bat near a player in the batting order. Also, subtracting home runs seems logical from an individual perspective, but on a team level it double-counts runs that are not home runs.Like a lot of sports stuff, this stat got me thinking. I realized in short (as mentioned in the description) that a 3-run home run actually produces 5 runs. In long, the batter hits a 3-run home run, notching 1 R, 3 RBI, and 1 HR. RP gives him 1+3-1=3. But there are two men on base, each of them score a run (1+0-0=1). 3+1+1=5.This makes no sense to me, and following in Bill James' footsteps, I sought to fix it. Obviously RP doesn't double count home runs, but somewhere along the lines, it double counts something, turning 3 runs into 5.
I finally came up with Runs Accounted For. Ironically I have no clue what kind of formula to use for this, and that is part of the reason for this blog. I am basically using this season as a beta-test to see where this stat can go. I wrote up a short description and I present it in a Wikipedia fashion:
Runs Accounted For is a measure of Runs Produced that attempts to not double count runs. It is a similar figure to basic Runs but allows more credit for those who bat runs in. For instance, a fast lead off hitter will score more often giving them a lot of runs. However, a slow power hitter will accumulate a large number of RBIs but very few runs scored. This stat gives power hitters credit for knocking in the runs and takes runs away from the fast hitter for the runs they scored when the power hitter batted them in.A good example of the above description is Dustin Pedroia and Mike Lowell in 2007. They scored 86 and 79 runs on the season, respectively. However Lowell knocked in 120 compared to Pedroia's 50. This gave Lowell a 50 RP advantage over Pedroia. He accounted for an estimated 30* or so runs more than Pedroia as well.
*Since I have not yet discovered a formula for RAF, I was not able to calculate a season RAF total for players. As of right now it is a game-by-game stat, but hopefully a formula will be discovered allowing for RAF to be calculated retroactively. 30 is an estimated number based off team ratios of runs to runs produced.
The changes that take place from this formula causes RAF to be equal to runs scored on a team level, but not from an individual standpoint. This way a 3-run home run accounts for, you guessed it, THREE runs. Not five, three. In the case of a 3-run homer, each runner is to account for half of a run each, since they did their part in getting on base in the first place. The batter then accounts for the 2 other half-runs from these players for batting them in. He then receives one more run accounted for for batting himself into score. Basically, in this situation, the batter gets 2 RAF, and each runner receives .5.
I think that is the best I can do to explain it. If anyone has anymore questions, leave a comment anytime during the season, and I will be more than happy to explain why a certain player accounts for a run (or doesn't). I am also including a short FAQ section at the end of this post to hopefully answer just a few more unknowns you may be pondering.
During the season, Joey D and myself (N8Dogg) will be following 2 teams along on our quest to find the true meaning of the RAF statistic. I will be covering my Milwaukee Brewers, and Joey D will take on his home state Detroit Tigers. I am very excited to see where I can take this and I would like to thank Joey D for all the help he has done (and will do) so I can focus better on 2 teams instead of just the one like my original plans called for.
And now for some FAQs:
Why is it possible for a player to account for half a run?
A typical run consists of 2 players, the batter and the batted in. The run should not be solely credited to the batter, nor should the batted in get the full run. They each did half the work to produce the run, therefore they account for half a run each, totaling one run.
Is it possible for a player to produce the same number of runs as another player yet account for more or less?
The answer to this is, as of now, purely speculative on my part. But in a word, yes. However, they must play for different teams. If two players play for the same team the following holds true: If you produce more runs, then you must account for more runs. But since different teams score more or less runs than another, runs produced may account for more or less per team. For example, in 2007, Brewers' Ryan Braun produced 3 fewer runs than Gary Sheffield of the Tigers. However, my estimated RAF (explained earlier) gives Braun 3 more RAF than Sheffield. Again, this is purely speculative based off estimated results. Results later in the season may or may not reflect this response.
Is RAF a team stat?
Yes and no. RAF is based off of a player's team's runs scored. However, it is calculated on an individual basis. A team RAF should be exactly equal to the team RS.
Is RAF an estimated stat like Runs Created?
NO!!! I don't want an estimated stat. I want a stat that accurately tells how many runs a player accounted for out of all the runs his team scored. Since all runs scored in a game are accounted for by individuals, no estimation must take place and total RAF of all players on a team equals total runs scored of that same team.
If you have anymore questions or need clarification on anything else, please let me know and I will do my best to answer them for you. Thank you everyone!
--N8DOGG